Reflexivity – Relationship of Economic actions to Probablistic effects in QED

George Soros coined the term Reflexivity in the sense which i referring to it. Essentially meaning things are in a constant feedback loop (and more Mandebrotian, than Gaussian). My hunch is that the problem of modelling/predictive problems of Finance/Economics & Quantum Electrodynamics of particles is essentially the same phenomenom. Much like the apple that falls to the ground is the same process by which galaxies form.. Essentially that of the reflexivity that George Soros mentioned so many years ago. This is probably why he called his hedge fund the Quantum Fund.

Random Walks, Lesky Walks

Some properties of it:

-In markets, people react to every scenario, the reaction deterministically affects the future scenario and so on in real-time.
-Far away a trend/pattern can be recognized, but as you zoom in, up close it is always almost 50/50 the direction the thing will take. This is true for news events as well. We always push up to the frontier of knowledge and then it is 50/50.
-large jumps happens, and the movement can be discontinuous
-guess: the break of symmetry in our universe causes constant turbulence as every particle interacts with every other particle; at least this is how it is in the markets, seeing the same process. An event happens, everyone is process it, that reaction creates more events and so forth. The net topological result (the asset price) is largely unpredictable from close up.
-almost every other aspect of QED seems to fit into the same process of how random walks in prices work. I think once we come up with tools to understand this (like every other major tool: calculus, alegebra etc, this is will be just one more process in the mix, that was once obscure, but which crops up everywhere in nature).

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.