April 16, 2009
Ways to speculate on the size of M3. if you like economics reverse engineering/conjecturing. read on. calculating the invisible M3 in the economy.
M3 which isn't reported anymore by governments can be calculated, by the envelope of the flight to liquidity, across the various investment classes (like shaking a bowl to see how much water is in it).
looking at the run on the banks, which can be found most easily - in a macroeconomic analysis way - by looking at the appreciation of the usd. The effect of the run on cash, gives a strong indicator of m3, under what is predicted by behavioural finance, (this is so - because, behaviours are usually the same over given conditions over a large data set - and will be bell curved and gaussian).
the shape of the run, laid over private sector's new money to old money, shows the exposure in a time series of the late adopters of the event, which, if trying to generalize and draw speculative conclusions, can be considered, perhaps middle investor. perhaps what is referred to as middle america (if they own most of the paper capital in say the us market).
this presumes a large correlation between, the slow money, and the late adapters role in a panic. (note that the whole larger point is predicated on the truth of this one point in some ways. There is fast money, which also pulled out late in the 'panic state').
The fact that this moved so quickly, broadly indicates that the overall system (notably m3) was cranked up very high (you can tell by how much the usd swung). this in my opinion is the best way to view m3 under the current paradigm.
March 28, 2009
After many months of deliberating, finally went independent and started the consulting company. It is 'McKinsey-like' with a production capability attached to it.
The m.o. is to publish the best research and to do the best media work out there. Our name is Bloor Media Group.
Things are doing well and we are looking for a videocamera right now to do more vid prod work.
Also check out. Oscillator Music. It is the reverse of a library. The premise is offer free recording and production capabilities to create content. In the spirit of Alan Lomax, the m.o. is to capture sound.
If you are interested, do send in your recording project and proposal.
September 15th, 2008
In Ottawa now. I Began my teaching of Classical Guitar at Carleton University and working at an Advertising Agency McMillan and Associates.
Enjoying Ottawa, my favourite thing about it is meeting people working in the foreign service DFAIT.
June 7th, 2008
The best speech i have heard in a while. Bill Gates - 2007 Harvard Commencement Speech Bill Gates Speech at Harvard (part 2).
Was in Harvard Square
playing chess not more than 100 yards away when he was giving this speech, but only saw it on youtube many months later.
Bill Gates has been the world's richest man for many years. The fact that he can speak (and act) as such a humanitarian, should be a guiding light for all of us.
All Parts Here
Bill Gates Speech at Harvard (part 1)
Bill Gates Speech at Harvard (part 2)
Bill Gates Speech at Harvard (part 3)
Bill Gates Speech at Harvard (part 4)
Bill Gates Speech at Harvard (part 5)
May 30th , 2008
Will we run into an Art Library Problem,, ?? .. where content creators will be competing against an ever-growing catalogue of items from the past. For eg. when one listens to music, they can choose a classic say "beatles", or listening to the most recent thing. As recorded history goes on, the modern day has to compete with more and more content from the past. It happens already in things such as textbook material. Will this decelerate the production of content when the libraries get so large?
Dec 3rd, 2007
Started www.isotope3.com and also doing www.powderbug.com
Am out of Cambridge now and had been on the go for about a month from nov5-30. i took a trip to Miami, moved to NYC and moved out of NYC to settle in Montreal for the long haul.
Montreal: perhaps a fav town, cell phones work in the subways, and wifi is abundant. Mtl feels like a time machine in many ways. still learning and seeing...
Moving blog over to facebook right now. Very much enjoying reading Alan Greenspan's autobiography right now tooo.
Here's some loose ideas on art and the prisoner's dilemna forya:
one view of art may be as the bedbug of society. in altering social expectations. invisible but essential. as implicit norms of society; we assume that cars at a red light will stop for us, pieces of paper can be changed for things etc. etc. and one only needs to experience culture shock to see how those social norms work when they are turned around.
one role of the artist then might be seen as either functioning as a model of humanity, among many models, or as a sacrificial lamb, the virtuous glue to it. This is important because, if one were to purely look at human behaviour on its own terms, self-interested behaviour is at work in many things. that is an ugly truth, certainly not in everything but i would assume in many things.
the problem then is why act outside of that agenda if others are not going to do the same? best seen in the prisoner's dilemna - the positive sum game, where the best single move for each party is to defect, to not cooperate. That is the expectation in many places in the world - all of which being not-so- hot tourist destinations making the nightly news.
It is only when expectations change, for eg. when it is a repeated game that expectations change, and a higher level of utility can be reached. Loans and mortgages are made, people open doors for one another, parents leave kids at school, people entrust the institutions around them. Thus the key to a healthy society is the management of the civil expectations of that society, and the utopian function of art can be seen as a fuel in propping/managing that expectation.
June 29th, 2007
The analogy of culture as software seems to hold.. so far for examples i can think of. A person can be genetically from one country - say - India, or Malawi etc. but if they are born here, they will be 'running' u.s. software and vice versa. A person of any culture can learn as their first and mother tongue the language of any other culture without bias. That is 100% platform independence. There is an abstraction layer there. Conceptualizing the power of 'invisible things' like both software and culture, in this light, it's easier to appreciate the power of it, i believe..
If you work in Art as a painter let's say, and you don't have kids but make great art, your cultural legacy can live on in other people in this way. It changes the idea of procreation from which you may live through other means. You do not necessarily have to make hardware, right?...
June 7th, 2007
Teaching at the Tennis Camps at Harvard until July 1st. Trying to keep up with Penpal correspondence. Enjoying Cambridge.
April 30th, 2007
- A Pareto Efficient improvment is one in which no parties lose,, it is a win-win. It seems that could increase public spending through public acts and not necessarily through taxation, if high visibility awards are given for such acts and recognized by the press and government. Recognition fuels the donor/act-giver and is the visible fuel of many things like music and science (the nobel is monetary but largely symbolic more than anything else). The government and the press can create recognition mechanisms 'out of thin air', it seems the most economical way of receiving private donations above tax breaks purposes. Good examples is the JFK Profiles in Courage award, given to public servants at any level, who've acted in the public interest, despite personal consequences. It's a reward for such deeds, and is Pareto efficient.
December 13th, 2006
Bought a new mic and put ideas to harddisk in an audio blog about the paper that I wanted to write: Mozart's Child:
http://alwinian.net/personalwritingphilosophymozartschild/mozartschild.htm
September 28th, 2006
-Leaving for Barcelona very soon!!
-Reading a very very interesting book: Emperor's New Mind, by Sir Roger Penrose. what a great book. I can't wait to read Road to Reality by him as well. They are sometimes way above my head, but the narrative is so good and so interesting. Like nectar from a tree, for the half artsy/half science-type.
-On September 9th, volunteered for a project called dropping knowledge (http://www.droppingknowledge.org/) which took place at Bebelplatz, Humboldt University in Berlin.
-All this blabbing garnered an invite to join as a blogger on www.hedgestop.com, though thinking about dropping it, as people are looking for answers and stock tips, and feeling that ppl are not understanding what i am writing, but persist..
-Ok,,, and now for the Financial Engineering stuff that everyone has eagerly been waiting for!!:
-choice oddities, fast becoming an Islamic folk music snob.
-learned more about financial options: the world reflected in a polarized chaos/order. lawful excuse, actus reus, extensive/normal forms.
-Solution 2 if Bill Clinton is busy. in a well organized political world, the losing MP candidate by poll whether liberal or ndp would defect or cast their total support for the same party. amalgamation. that would win the election allowing the most popular candidate to win into one joint unified ndlib superparty.
We could completely solve our leadership problem in Canada, if we let Bill Clinton become a Canadian citizen. It would honestly work, Bill is 59 yo young, still in his prime as a leader.
I am reading about another Paul Martin. Not the prime minister, but an archeologist. He - Paul Martin the archeologist purports the Blitzkreig model of settlement by the Clovis people (the first settlers of n.america) that they came here on a woolly mammoth hunt... from Jarod Diamond's book 3rd Chimpanzee. Amazing book.
W*-E!-L*-C!-O*-M!-E*! - I LAUNCH THE NEW REDESIGN OF THE SITE, WITH MORE LINKS TO PROJECTS AND EVERYTHING CLICKABLE. Hope you Enjoy, and Thanks for reading.